Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 23.371511 25.669297 28.251091 31.401360 35.190525 39.667989 4.546481e+01
2025-02-02 20.108906 23.092831 26.723725 31.591104 38.158526 47.076301 6.086470e+01
2025-02-09 17.993696 21.343824 25.671104 31.924999 41.244924 55.698966 8.285677e+01
2025-02-16 16.395484 19.924593 24.696276 32.023219 43.918725 64.839066 1.135259e+02
2025-02-23 15.027783 18.587895 23.567828 31.581483 45.536156 72.985548 1.528304e+02
2025-03-02 14.065069 17.670902 22.870973 31.610949 47.906601 83.992408 2.232861e+02
2025-03-09 13.207307 16.798133 22.103838 31.345143 49.615295 94.784964 3.367729e+02
2025-03-16 12.465755 16.016497 21.370407 30.984528 51.008735 106.037367 5.506922e+02
2025-03-23 11.837660 15.344766 20.728235 30.664681 52.391767 118.801604 1.091006e+03
2025-03-30 11.314128 14.786427 20.205830 30.472716 54.020209 134.591703 3.950140e+03
2025-04-06 10.759455 14.139426 19.474796 29.766419 54.187165 145.275283 7.458504e+06
2025-04-13 10.614907 14.115868 19.779388 31.148471 60.321234 196.081845 NaN
2025-04-20 10.203285 13.647655 19.287676 30.840384 61.734243 225.901135 NaN
2025-04-27 9.889420 13.316823 19.008645 30.948083 64.522391 278.272317 NaN
2025-05-04 9.627128 13.052622 18.824200 31.235910 68.096030 362.631205 NaN
2025-05-11 9.358305 12.761099 18.564858 31.315006 71.064318 474.601796 NaN
2025-05-18 9.046121 12.380749 18.113091 30.882682 72.010259 575.682335 NaN
2025-05-25 8.813228 12.120834 17.866525 30.908007 74.849656 809.369529 NaN
2025-06-01 8.563883 11.820745 17.522835 30.650686 76.468794 1114.051064 NaN
2025-06-08 8.321245 11.521030 17.160484 30.302758 77.605502 1574.018700 NaN
2025-06-15 8.098672 11.246032 16.828844 29.994352 78.860032 2480.043366 NaN
2025-06-22 7.903145 11.009260 16.557066 29.809259 80.702365 5314.999581 NaN
2025-06-29 7.667253 10.693882 16.114380 29.128373 79.795979 8303.016319 NaN